RMA projects 2% growth in tire shipments

WASHINGTON—U.S. tire shipments are projected to rise 2 percent in 2013 because of an increase in vehicle miles traveled and economic growth, according to the Rubber Manufacturers Association.

That follows a relatively flat performance in 2012, with total shipments unchanged at 284 million units, the trade association said.

In a Dec. 18 report, the RMA said replacement tire shipments probably fell to 234 million units in 2012, a decrease of 2.5 percent from 2011 figures. However, the drop should be offset completely by a projected 13-percent increase in original equipment tire shipments for both the light vehicle and commercial truck sectors.

The RMA previously forecasted overall shipments for the year would rise about 1.2 percent to 288 million units.

The RMA is forecasting OE growth of nearly 4 percent for 2013, as new vehicle demand is expected to increase passenger and light truck vehicle sales to total more than 15 million. In addition, the association is predicting 2013 replacement tire shipments—led primarily by an increase in passenger tire demand—will grow by 3 million units. That would bring total anticipated tire shipments for the year to approximately 290 million units.

In 2012, OE passenger tire shipments probably increased 15 percent to 41 million units, an improvement of more than 5 million. The RMA said shipments for 2013 should increase more than 4 percent, or 1.7 million units.

OE light truck tires shipments rose about 2 percent in 2012 to 4.3 million units, as domestic vehicle production using light truck tires experienced only slight growth because of soft economic conditions, the RMA reported. The category is expected to grow an additional 2.8 percent to nearly 4.4 million units in 2013.

Increased demand for commercial trucks and trailers boosted commercial OE tire shipments by more than 5 percent in 2012, the RMA said, to about 5.2 million units.

A sluggish forecast for the 2013 Industrial Production Index likely will limit growth during 2013 for commercial tires to about 2 percent.

On the replacement side, the preliminary data show 2012 passenger tire shipments decreased by more than 4 million units, or nearly 2 percent, to 190 million units as anticipated demand failed to materialize because of continued soft economic conditions, the RMA said. However, the market segment is expected to increase by 3 million units in 2013.

Replacement light truck tire shipments should finish out 2012 at about 28 million units—a decrease of about 600,000—and little or no growth is forecast in 2013.

Replacement commercial tire shipments declined by about 5 percent to 15.7 million units in 2012 as fleets opted for new equipment, but 2013 shipments are expected to increase nearly 4 percent, or about 600,000 units, the RMA predicted.